Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
