Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."